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Another day, another climbdown by Rishi Sunak in the face of another revolt by his mutinous backbenchers. At least the latest U-turn – to allow onshore wind farms in England – is the right decision, after Sunak supported the existing ban during this summer’s Tory leadership contest. His change of heart followed a rebellion that included his predecessors Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
But don’t make the mistake of thinking the Sunak government is going green. The suspicion at Westminster is that it will soon approve a controversial plan for a coal mine in Cumbria. As Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, said today, the prime minister is “being held to ransom” by different Tory factions, and it would be “absolutely shameful” to buy off one group by opening the country’s first coal mine for 30 years.
Sunak’s second climbdown this week – scrapping mandatory targets for local authorities on new housing – is a victory for nimbyism and makes a Tory defeat at the next election even more likely. Officially, the government’s pledge that 300,000 homes will be built each year remains, but councils will be able to set a lower level of building if meeting their target would “significantly change the character of an area”.
Sunak could and should have done the right thing for the country by relying on Labour votes to ensure mandatory local targets, but that would have probably provoked a declaration of war by some Tory MPs.
Traditionally the party of home ownership, the Tories now risk alienating millions of younger adults trying to get on the property ladder as they nod to objections from older, often Tory voters. This will compound the party’s generational crisis; home-buyers and renters will blame their higher mortgage payments and rents on Truss’ disastrous mini-Budget. Why would they vote Tory at the next election? No wonder people in the 25-49 age group are twice as likely to consider voting Labour than Tory, according to YouGov.
Why are there so many retreats when the government has an apparently comfortable working majority of 69? In practice, it’s much smaller after 12 years in power. The whips’ usual sticks and carrots cut little ice with former ministers, who make up more than half of Tory backbenchers, and those who will stand down at the next election.
Sunak allies insist he is making the usual compromises any government must, by finding common ground and splitting the difference between rival groups. His immediate priority is to provide stability after the chaos under Truss and Johnson, so he is trying to avoid fights – with his MPs, and the more than one million workers planning to strike this winter. That’s why he hasn’t yet pressed ahead with a Bill to ensure minimum service levels during strikes – another source of grumbling from some Tories, who want him, as one put it, to “go on the attack”.
The perception is one of weakness, reinforcing Keir Starmer’s narrative that Sunak is too timid to stand up to his backbenchers. Some Tories make uncomfortable parallels with John Major, another Tory PM who faced constant backbench rebellions and was described as “in office, but not in power”.
After leaving Downing Street, Major admitted: “The modern head of government may wish to bestride the political stage like a colossus, but events can reduce him (or her) to no more than a cork bobbing on the waves.” Somehow, Sunak needs to avoid this fate. But, as during Major’s time, Tory backbenchers are never satisfied: now some grumble that Sunak stands for nothing.
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After a period of relative calm and tactical retreats to “get the barnacles off the boat,” as the former Tory strategist Lynton Crosby called it, allies say Sunak will be able to concentrate on his core messages; on the economy, the NHS, the small boats crisis and education – his passion and a crucial part of his medium-term mission.
The PM will try to unite the warring Tory factions by talking tough on immigration and crime (an offensive on which was discussed by the cabinet yesterday). He plans a speech outlining his vision in the new year.
Yet, ominously, senior Tories are beginning to wonder how Sunak can implement his own agenda when faced with such a fractious, faction-ridden parliamentary party for whom rebellion has become a way of life and who now sense their new leader’s weakness.
As Craig Oliver, who was Downing Street director of communications under David Cameron, told me: “The question that is increasingly clear for this government is: having done the autumn statement, can it do anything else that is vaguely controversial?” To be an effective rather than a lame duck PM, this is a test Sunak must pass.
