Taiwan China's military exercises against Taiwan have set a new normal, with similar exercises and more aggressive actions off the coast. Is likely to "normalize" the , analysts said.
The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has responded to its controversial visit to China by conducting live-fire exercises and other have conducted training. Taipei by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Beijing claims Taiwan as a province. It does not rule out taking it by force and opposes any foreign action that supports its sovereignty.[12] Taiwan has accused Beijing of using Pelosi's visit as a pretext to prepare for an invasion.
Some drills continue, but the big show last week is over and observers can now see how the dynamics of the region have changed and Assess what the future holds for cross-strait relations.
"This is about the sense of fear and inevitability in the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese," said Alessio Patalano, professor of East Asian warfare and strategy at King's College London. I was. “Political messages conveyed through military means carry a real risk that these overtly offensive measures may be normalized.”
It was unclear whether Beijing felt it had achieved anything in its training, some analysts said. Pentagon officials said this week thattheir assessment that China would not attempt to retake Taiwan militarily over the next two years would not change.
According to a Guardian analysis of public data from Taiwan,Chinaand Japan, the PLA sent at least 140 aircraft into Taiwan's air defense area during the week, including included 100 aircraft on the center line. An unofficial seaway that crosses the middle of the Taiwan Strait. Airplanes included fighters, reconnaissance planes, H-6 bombers and tankers.
The PLA Navy claims it has entered Taiwan's disputed waters. At least 41 Chinese ships also crossed the center line. According to Taipei, 10 PLA naval vessels played a cat-and-mouse game with 10 Taiwanese vessels on Sunday. At least seven "batches" of one or more drones were detected over Taiwan's remote islands of Kinmen and Matsu, and Taiwan's defense ministry said flares were fired in response. Aerial drones have also been seen near Japan.
"It is impossible to accurately assess how well the PLA performed in conducting joint operations," said Bonnie Glazer, a China expert at the German Marshall Foundation. Stated.
"It's not clear who was in command and control... They imposed a blockade on the island and had rehearsals to carry out the attack, but the exercises required to invade the island. It didn't include all the elements that are important," she said.
Glaser added that the newly announced training focused on anti-submarine and maritime operations will exercise some of the capabilities that were lacking last week.
For now, most of the observer's attention is focused on the median, a rare event until last week. The Chinese government, which has respected the strait for decades, has changed its stance, denied its existence, sent planes and ships over it during periods of heightened tension, and carried out massive attacks on the entire strait. claimed sovereignty.
On Tuesday, Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said there was concern that the People's Liberation Army would "routine" such crossings. He urged the international community to fight back, saying Beijing's clear aim is to control the Strait.
A future full of center line crossings may not be on the same scale as we saw last week, but "the key is to regularize it," said senior China analyst at Crisis Group. list, says Amanda Hsiao.
"This is basically a continued attempt to argue that the median line no longer matters." John Culver said it was also important to point out what the PLA had not done during the exercise. This included intruding into Taiwan's territorial waters or adjacent waters, flying fighter jets over the island, or mobilizing Coast Guard or Marines "key to an actual blockade."
"While this could be seen as a restraint on the part of China, it is also an escalation procedure reserved to show an even greater threat/severity next time," Culver said on Twitter.
