( CNN)The Republicans, at least on paper, would not have retraced their path to the five Congressional seats needed to control the House.
The bigger story is not that one party won the seat, but that competing seats were part of a decades-long trend of voter polarization and party consolidation of power. It may be that the number has decreased by 17 seats. party.
What are competitive districts?
In the current situation, only 34 of the 435 seats (less than 10%) are competitive districts, down 17 seats from the last time the map was used in 2020. I'm here.
For the purposes of this CNN analysis applying the 2020 election results to the newly elected constituencies, "competitive" refers to either President Joe Biden or Refers to districts won by either former President Donald Trump by a margin of 5% or less.
CNN's analysis of the competitive landscape in 34 constituencies is more than enough to shake control of the 435-member House of Representatives, with a wave in either direction Constituencies that were uncompetitive in previous elections play.
But Texas has 10 less competitive seats.
Democrats won her two seats.
States like Georgia, Missouri, and Nebraska do the same.
The process is changing for the better nationwide
Princeton University professor Samuel Wang, who runs the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, said the 2020 Biden In his analysis, the data takes into account multiple recent elections, not just against Trump. He also notes that there has been a decline in contested seats from 2020 to 2022, but an increase in contested seats since 2012.
"One of the big reasons is the improved reorganization process," Mr Wang told me, referring to independent commissions and neutral mapping in key provinces. Pointing to the process, he pointed out that his organization sees state congressional maps as better. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina, New York etc.
Less competitive districts. But the competition is
Professional handicappers use many factors to determine which races actually run.
"There may be fewer hot spots, but that doesn't mean fewer competitive races," CNN analyst and Inside Elections editor Nathan Gonzales told me in an email. rice field.
Additional Republican districts safer than Democratic districts
There are slightly fewer precincts that are very safe for Democrats, and more precincts where Biden won by a margin of 2-7 percent. point. This suggests more Democrats than Republicans will likely defend on the new map, even in a race not on the competitive list.
There is a difference between dwindling competitive seats, which can reach deep, and competitive districts, which have many potential.
"Which districts are actually 'competitive' changes from cycle to cycle," Kyle Kondik, senior editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, told me in an email. "For example, there are probably a few Biden seats in the double digits that the Republicans are likely to eventually overturn, especially if there is a tailwind in the fall (we'll see if that happens)." 97} He also made the important point that what looks like a safe district for Republicans or Democrats today may look very different after an election or two.
KONDIK: In places like Georgia and Texas, many constituencies that were considered safe to be Republican were elected President Donald Trump in the 2010s. pushed out many traditional constituencies and became much more competitive. Suburban Republican voters. Similarly, Trump has made some typical Democratic districts, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania, more competitive. He rose to the top of the Republican Party and shook many Barack Obama voters. Voter coalitions change over time and can change in ways that are difficult to predict.
Nation's Favorite Districts
Political parties are switching control of Congress more frequently
Which way is the wind blowing?
When control of the Capitol is contested in November, Democrats could suddenly become optimistic for some reason in what is still expected to be a very tough political environment. There is a nature.
But the persistent inflation looming over all of this has made Americans' cost of living higher and helped build deep economic pessimism. will be