United Kingdom

Pre-election poll shows Labour gains but Tory majority likely

A new poll today gave a last-minute boost to Boris Johnson on the eve of the general election - putting the Tories on course to win a majority. 

But Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party are still gaining ground with just hours to go until the nation votes, according to the survey conducted by Opinium between December 10-11.

It puts the Tories on 45 per cent overall, down one point on the company's work published last week.

Labour is up two points in the poll to 33 per cent, giving the Tories a 12 point lead as Britain prepares to go to the ballot box.

Almost one in ten voters are yet to make up their mind about how they will cast their vote. 

If the headline numbers were replicated when people vote tomorrow then Mr Johnson would almost certainly win a big Tory majority.

Conservative nerves have been set on edge after a separate YouGov poll suggested a hung parliament is still a very real possibility.

All the leaders of the main political parties embarked on last ditch trips across the UK today in a final push for votes.

Mr Johnson's day got off to a terrible start in West Yorkshire as he was ambushed by an ITV reporter from the Good Morning Britain programme, prompting one of his aides to swear on live television. 

The PM refused to be interviewed and sought refuge in a fridge at the dairy he was visiting, sparking a wave of ridiculing memes on social media. 

The attempt to hijack the premier's final day of the campaign left the Conservatives furious as sources insisted Mr Johnson had not been 'hiding'. A spokesman for the party said: 'The PM stepped inside as cameras were set up for an interview. The only thing being hidden in this election is Jeremy Corbyn's plans for Brexit.'

Mr Johnson later made his way to Derby where he helped to cook a pie at a catering company before then heading to south Wales to visit a wrapping paper factory.

Meanwhile, Mr Corbyn visited Glasgow and the north of England where he insisted Labour will defy the poll numbers and win the election 'no problem at all'.

Boris Johnson plants a Get Brexit Done sign in Benfleet, Essex, this evening as he was dealt a pre-election poll boost putting him on course to win a majority  

Boris Johnson, pictured arriving at Cardiff Airport this afternoon, has embarked on a trip across the nation as he tries to win a majority at the election tomorrow

An Opinium survey gives the Tories a 12 point lead over Labour on the eve of the general election. Compared to the same poll last week, Labour are up two, the Conservatives are down one and the Lib Dems are also down one

Hammering the Brexit message: The PM has spent the final day of campaigning on a cross-country blitz of marginal seats, ending in Benfleet, Essex, where he used a sledgehammer to plant a Conservative sign in an activist's garden

The Opinium survey is likely to have buoyed Mr Johnson's spirits, pictured in Hengoed in south Wales this afternoon, as it suggests he is still on course to win a majority 

Jeremy Corbyn, pictured on a visit to Rother Valley this afternoon, has insisted Labour will win the election 'no problem at all'

Boris Johnson's final day of campaigning gets off to terrible start

Boris Johnson's exasperated media minder swore on live TV today as the PM refused to speak to Good Morning Britain before seeking refuge in a fridge as he started an early-morning milk round in Yorkshire.

Piers Morgan was visibly shocked and Susanna Reid had her head in her hands as Mr Johnson's press secretary Robert Oxley declared 'for f***'s sake' and blocked the path of GMB's roving reporter Jonathan Swain after he tried to ambush the premier.

The Tory leader, who was delivering milk in the marginal seat of Pudsey, West Yorkshire, this morning, has repeatedly refused to appear on the ITV1 show. 

Mr Swain confronted Mr Johnson as he put milk crates in a van and said: 'Morning Prime Minister, will you come on Good Morning Britain? Will you deliver on your promise to speak to Piers and Susanna?'

A tired-looking Mr Oxley loudly muttered: 'For f***'s sake' as his boss ignored the calls and wandered into a large walk-in chiller as Mr Morgan exclaimed: 'He's gone into the fridge'.

Following several minutes in the fridge, Mr Johnson later returned with a crate of orange juice and was asked if he would keep his promise to appear on the programme and replied: 'Of course I will' - but with the polls opening tomorrow he refused to say when. 

Tory sources said the PM was 'categorically not hiding' in the fridge and that he was actually being briefed by aides ahead of a separate and pre-agreed interview.  

The YouGov survey, published last night, showed the Tories are on course to win a 28 seat majority. 

However, the margin of error on the poll was sufficiently large that Mr Johnson could end up with anything between 311 seats - short of a majority - and 367. 

Mr Johnson has consistently enjoyed double digit poll leads over Mr Corbyn for the duration of the campaign but things have tightened in recent days.

The new Opinium poll suggests that barring a major shock, Mr Johnson's Tories will end up with the most MPs after the election. 

The survey shows that Labour has made gains in the final few days of campaigning but it appears to be too little too late for Mr Corbyn. 

The rounded figures for the Opinium survey show a 12 point lead for the Tories but Labour's vote share sits at 33.5 per cent while the Conservatives are on 44.8 per cent putting Mr Johnson's exact lead at 11.3 per cent. 

Opinium suggested that the tightening in the polls could be attributed to Remain voters making a last-minute switch from the Liberal Democrats to Labour. 

The Lib Dems are on 12 per cent of the vote, down one per cent on last week's poll. 

The Opinium survey could go could some way to assuaging Tory fears of the election resulting in a hung parliament after the YouGov poll was published last night.

That poll put the Tories on 43 per cent with Labour on 34 per cent. 

YouGov estimated that the Tories were on course to win 339 seats, up 22 on the party's tally from the 2017 general election. 

YouGov's final poll before the election projects Boris Johnson will win 339 seats and Labour will win 231. That would give him a majority of 28, but that has more than halved from the previous poll taken the month before. The margin of error in the poll also means that a hung Parliament cannot be ruled out. The YouGov graphic above shows which seats are projected to change hands 

A previous YouGov survey published two weeks ago suggested the Tories could win a 68 seat majority but the new piece of work suggested the number was more likely to be 28 as Labour appeared to be performing better than expected in a number of constituencies. These are the seats that are expected to change hands

Mr Johnson started his day in Pudsey, West Yorkshire, this morning, but refused to appear live on GMB as he went on a milk round in a marginal constituency

Altercation:  His frustrated minder Robert Oxley said: 'For f***s sake' to GMB's roving reporter Jonathan Swain in an extraordinary live TV exchange, left. Mr Johnson sought refuge in a fridge and emerged several minutes later with a crate of orange juice, right

Mr Johnson's decision to refuse to be interviewed on ITV's GMB programme and to seek refuge in a fridge prompted ridicule online - including from former Tory minister David Gauke who is standing as an independent candidate at the election

Mr Johnson appeared to be in good spirits as he visited a wrapping paper factory where he pulled Christmas crackers with staff

Jeremy Corbyn claims he will win election 'no problem at all'

Jeremy Corbyn today insisted that a Labour election upset was 'no problem at all' despite signs that his party is on course to lose seats and suffer a humiliating defeat. 

He spoke on the campaign trail less than 24 hours before the polls open for a vote that could decide the course of Brexit.  

Boris Johnson is on course to win the general election with a majority of 28 that would allow him to complete Brexit, according to the YouGov polling analysis which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017.  

But that majority is down from 68 seats a fortnight ago and the analysis also shows some of his top ministers, including Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, could lose their seats.  

Mr Corbyn could still conceivably find himself in No 10 at the the head of a rainbow coalition of Labour, the SNP, Lib Dems and Greens.

YouGov's final MRP model predicts that the Conservatives will win 339 seats, with Jeremy Corbyn's party on 231 and the Liberal Democrats on 15.  

But the pollsters warned that the margin of error could put the Tory seat total as low as 311, which would mean another hung parliament.

Asked in an interview if he believes he can still win, the Labour leader said: 'Of course we are going to do it - no problem at all.'

He added: 'I never, ever comment on opinion polls. The only poll that matters is the one tomorrow.'

Meanwhile, Labour was projected to lose 31 seats when compared to the result from two years ago, with the party potentially finishing up with 231 MPs.

But crucially, YouGov's analysis showed the race in dozens of seats is incredibly tight with less than five per cent separating the two main parties. 

That means that just small swings could dramatically alter the final result of the election. 

The YouGov survey also suggested that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab and Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers, as well as former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith, could be ousted tomorrow night. 

The latest poll numbers came as Mr Johnson insisted he is not too posh to win over working-class Labour voters - as he launched a savage attack on Mr Corbyn.  

In an eve-of-poll interview with MailOnline, the PM questioned his opponent's patriotism as he accused him of repeatedly 'siding with our enemies' and following the 'line to take' from Vladimir Putin. 

He said the UK's allies were 'seriously concerned' about the prospect of Mr Corbyn taking power.

Mr Johnson appealed for voters to avoid the 'catastrophe' of a hard-Left government that would wipe out jobs and send businesses to the wall.

And he also delivered a stark message that failure to honour the result of the 2016 referendum would risk social unrest and the rise of more extreme political movements - as disaffected Leave voters abandon mainstream parties. 

Mr Johnson also revealed in the interview that he has not spoken to Donald Trump since the 'gossipgate' row at last week's NATO summit.

Amid Tory fears ties to the US President could be an electoral liability, the PM also played down their warm relationship saying he gets on well with 'all sorts of leaders'. 

Mr Johnson's attempts to win over voters took a festive turn this afternoon as he visited a south Wales firm which is said to be the Queen's Christmas cracker supplier.

He helped box up rolls of wrapping paper before joining staff at IG Design Group in pulling a election of the crackers.

The PM read out the joke in one of them, asking: 'What can you make that cannot be seen? The answer is a noise.'

The noise of laughter was not heard, so the PM added: 'What can you get done by Christmas? Brexit.'

Some laughter then followed with Mr Johnson commending those who got the 'right answer'.  

Labour surge: Jeremy Corbyn (pictured in Sheffield) inches closer to the Tories in an eve-of-election poll but time is running out for the left-winger with only hours until the crunch vote

Jo Swinson (pictured with drag artist Rosie Zinfandel) campaigns in Wimbledon as her party continues to slide in the polls

SNP leader Nicola Stugeon is hoping to increase her haul of Westminster MPs in tomorrow's vote, in the hope it could swing her a desired second independence referendum if she holds the balance of power

Nigel Farage leaves a house in Hartlepool - one of the Brexit Party's target seats - after canvassing on the eve of the election

Ten early results to watch on election night: Knife-edge seats that will announce before 3am and could point towards a big majority for Boris Johnson ... or a Brexit-stalling hung parliament

Boris Johnson will not have to wait long to decide whether he will taste champagne or bitter tears on election night with a host of key seats determined early on.

Ten Leave-supporting Labour marginals are among the constituencies expected to declare their results in the early hours of Friday, after polls close at 10pm.

Many have been Labour for generations and whether they stay in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn or switch allegiance to the Tories could make all the difference to the timing and manner of Brexit.

One of the earliest is the bellweather seat of Workington in Cumbria. Home of Workington Man, the archetypal voter at this election is is due to declare at 1am.

Labour is defending a majority of almost 4,000 and the most recent poll suggests they could hold it, despite a 60 per cent Leave vote. 

So a swing to the Tories here could spell the start of an uncomfortable night for Jeremy Corbyn.

Nine other key seats across the North and Midlands are expected to be among those declared by 3am. All share three things: they are voted Leave in 2016 and have a Labour MP. 

Boris Johnson (pictured today in Wales) will gain early signs of how his campaign to be returned to Downing Street is going with a host of key seats determined in the dead of night

Labour is defending a majority of almost 4,000 in Workington and the most recent poll suggests they could hold it, so a swing to the Tories here could spell the start of an uncomfortable night for Jeremy Corbyn (pictured today in Glasgow)

Jeremy Corbyn speaks at a general election campaign event with a little red book on the final day of campaigning, in Bedford

The PM - buoyed by a final poll putting him on course to clinch a majority - smiles as he plants a Conservative Brexit sign in Essex

Boris Johnson speaks to reporters on the plane on the final day of campaigning. Beside him is his head of press Rob Oxley (left) who swore live on television this morning when the PM was confronted by an ITV reporter

Darlington in County Durham is due to be next up around 1.30am, followed by Wrexham in north Wales  and Stockton South, both of which voted 58 per cent in favour of Leave, at 2am along with Burnley (66 per cent Leave).

The other five are due around 3am: Great Grimsby (71 per cent Leave), Peterborough (63 per cent), Blackpool South (68 per cent), Newcastle-under-Lyme (62 per cent) and Bishop Aukland (60 per cent).

Mr Johnson is on course to win the general election with a majority of 28 that would allow him to complete Brexit, according to the YouGov polling analysis which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017.

But that majority is down from 68 seats a fortnight ago and the analysis also shows some of his top ministers, including Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, could lose their seats.

YouGov's final MRP model predicts that the Conservatives will win 339 seats, with Jeremy Corbyn's party on 231 and the Liberal Democrats on 15.

YouGov warned that the margin of error could put the Tory seat total as low as 311, which would mean another hung parliament.

The Conservatives are predicted to gain 22 seats, including in Labour heartlands such as Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Tony Blair's former seat of Sedgefield

However, there are signs that Labour is 'patching the cracks' in its so-called 'red wall' of seats across the North and the Midlands.

Conservative strategists fear that an ugly row over the NHS on Monday has damaged their campaign and candidates say the election is now 'on a knife edge'.

Boris Johnson arrives at Cardiff airport ahead of a visit to IG Design Group in Hengoed, Wales. The PM has come under fire from environmentalists and political rivals for his use of short haul flights this election

Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson is facing stiff competition from the SNP in her constituency of East Dunbartonshire, who she won the seat back from in 2017

Nicola Sturgeon was fulfilling her first ministerial duties at the Scottish Parliament today, posing for a picture with SNP supporters afterwards

The Tories' shrinking lead means that Labour are now on course to retain Tory target seats such as Tom Watson's former constituency of West Bromwich East

The impact of Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage's  decision to only run in Labour-held seats will also be revealed.

Here is how election night is shaping to pan out:  


Polling stations close, followed immediately by the publication of the exit poll. It will be announced live on the BBC, ITV and Sky News, and will offer the first clues as to how the night will unfold. At each of the past few elections, the exit poll has produced a very accurate projection of the actual result.

By 11pm

Two constituencies are racing to be first to declare: Houghton and Sunderland South and Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central

Both results are expected around 11pm and both are safe Labour seats, so it will be the change in Labour's share of the vote - and the size of a potential swing to the Conservatives - that will be most useful in providing further clues to the overall election result. 

There should also be the first indications of turnout.

By 12am

Four more safe Labour seats are likely to have declared, all in north-east England. 

Again, look out for any evidence of a change in Labour's vote share and a possible swing to the Conservatives.

By 1am

Boris Johnson eats a portion of pie on the campaign bus after a visit to the Red Olive catering company on the final day of campaigning in Derby

Nigel Farage took his Brexit party campaign to Workington, but will he steal votes off Labour and hand it to the Tories, or visa versa?

The PM is blitzing marginal seats such as Hengoed in Wales, where he today visited IG Design Group on the final day of campaigning

Kiss of victory? Jeremy Corbyn plants a smacker on a Labour activist as he takes the party's campaign battle bus to to Dinnington, Sheffield

Workington could be the first seat of the night to change hands. 

If the Conservatives take it from Labour, Boris Johnson might be on course for a comfortable majority in the new parliament. 

If Labour holds on, the overall result could be a lot closer. 

North Down should be the first result of the night from Northern Ireland - a seat formerly held by the Independent MP Sylvia Hermon, and being targeted at this election by the DUP, the Ulster Unionists and the Alliance.

By 2am

Results will start to pick up. If Labour is doing well, they may take Carlisle, Putney, Thurrock and Vale of Glamorgan from the Conservatives. 

If Labour is doing badly, they could see the likes of Stockton South, Wrexham and West Bromwich West being gained by the Tories. 

Plaid Cymru will hope to hold Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd, while the DUP will be looking to keep Lagan Valley, Londonderry East and Strangford.

The first results will come from Scottish seats being defended by the SNP, such as Dunbartonshire West, and Lanark and Hamilton East.

By 3am

Labour might defeat Iain Duncan Smith (left)  in Chingford and Woodford Green, while the Lib Dems could take Esher and Walton from Dominic Raab (right)

Britain's next kingmaker? Nicola Sturgeon (pictured in East Dunbartonshire) could propel Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street if Boris Johnson fails to win a majority

Nigel Farage canvasses voters on the general election campaign trail in Doncaster, northern England as he bids to avoid a no-seat humiliation at the polls

A flood of results is expected. Former Tory MP Dominic Grieve is hoping to win Beaconsfield as an Independent. 

The Lib Dems will want to hold Brecon and Radnorshire, which they gained from the Conservatives earlier in the year, and retake Nick Clegg's former seat of Sheffield Hallam from Labour. 

Labour might defeat Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford and Woodford Green, while the Lib Dems could take Esher and Walton from Dominic Raab. 

The result is due from Dartford, a bellwether seat since 1964. 

The SNP have their eyes on the Tory seats of Ochil and Perthshire South and Stirling. If Labour is having a good night, they will be making gains in places like Telford and Worcester.

If the Tories are performing well, they will hope to take seats like Great Grimsby (a Labour seat since 1945), Bishop Auckland (Labour seat since 1935) and Don Valley (Labour since 1922). 

Jeremy Corbyn's result in Islington North is due, as is Jo Swinson's result in Dunbartonshire East. Sinn Fein will be hoping to keep their marginal seat Foyle.

By 4am

Over half of the results will be in, and the overall trend of the night should be clear. 

Labour targets such as Harrow East, Loughborough and Milton Keynes South will declare, likewise Lib Dem targets like St Albans and Cheltenham. All are being defended by the Conservatives. 

Labour will hope to hold the ultra-marginal seats of Canterbury and Crewe and Nantwich, as well as Ipswich, Lincoln and Rother Valley, which are all Tory targets. 

Plaid Cymru is defending Ceredigion against challenges from the Lib Dems, Labour and the Tories. 

The SNP will hope to hold Fife North East and with a larger margin than they managed in 2017, when they had a majority of just two. 

The Ulster Unionists are hoping to take Fermanagh and South Tyrone from Sinn Fein.

By 5am

By 5am Boris Johnson should know whether he's safely back in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where he won only a slim majority over Labour in 2017

Anna Soubry should have discovered whether she's been able to hold Broxtowe for the Change party. 

Boris Johnson should also know whether he's safely back in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where he won only a slim majority over Labour in 2017. 

Kensington, another of Labour's ultra-marginals, should have declared by now, although the result in 2017 needed several recounts and wasn't confirmed until nearly 24 hours after polls closed. 

The Lib Dems have a chance to make a couple of gains from the Tories in Cheadle and Hazel Grove, while the SNP could do likewise in Gordon.

Dennis Skinner could be unseated by the Conservatives in Bolsover, and other Labour seats at risk include Ashfield, Colne Valley and Keighley.

By 6am

Result should have slowed to a trickle. 

A handful of seats in London could deliver some late upsets: Labour is hoping to take Chipping Barnet and Hendon from the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats could unseat the Tories in Finchley and Golders Green and Richmond Park

The Lib Dems are also eyeing the Tory seat of Wells.

By 7am

Remainer Caroline Lucas will have discovered if she has been re-elected as the Green MP for Brighton Pavilion.

By 10am

There is the possibility of some very late gains for the Lib Dems in South West England, who are hoping to defeat the Tories in Cornwall North, St Austell and Newquay and St Ives

Recounts could delay some of the declarations from earlier, but every seat is due to begin counting overnight so there is a good chance all 650 results will be in by mid-morning. 

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