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Labor is on track to win the Queensland election, poll show

Annastacia Palaszczuk is set to win the Queensland election and take Labor into a third consecutive term but the result is likely to be tight and a hung parliament remains possible, the latest Newspoll shows.

The poll for the Weekend Australian puts Labor ahead of the Liberal National Party 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, after preferences.

That would return the government and possibly improve its narrow two-seat majority in the 93-seat parliament.

But with 14 of Labor's existing 48 seats on margins of less than 4 per cent and the unknown quantity of up to 70 per cent of the electorate voting early the LNP has an outside chance to take minority government.

Annastacia Palaszczuk is set to win the Queensland election and take Labor into a third consecutive term, the latest Newspoll shows

Satisfaction with Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington dipped two points to 35 per cent over the past two weeks and those dissatisfied with her increased four points to 48 per cent

The poll confirms that both major parties pulled votes from One Nation, which shed 27 per cent of what it secured at the previous state election, down from a vote of 13.7 per cent in 2017 to 10 per cent.

Labor's primary vote remained steady on 37 per cent through the campaign while the LNP's slipped one point to 36 per cent.

The Greens are unchanged on 11 per cent while most of the remaining 6 per cent goes to Katter's Australian Party. Clive Palmer's United Australia Party has had negligible impact.

The poll shows 62 per cent of voters are satisfied with the premier's performance and 33 per cent are dissatisfied.

Satisfaction with Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington dipped two points to 35 per cent over the past two weeks and those dissatisfied with her increased four points to 48 per cent.

On who would be the better premier, Ms Palaszczuk scored 56 per cent to 30 per cent over her challenger.

Both leaders are blitzing marginal seats on election day, but 1.65 million voters or half of the electorate have already cast their ballots.

Ms Palaszczuk is on the hustings in Brisbane, while Ms Frecklington has quite an itinerary.

Pictured: Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (left) and Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington (right) greet each other with their elbows at the debate on Friday

Protesters dressed as the Tin Man and Dorothy from the Wizard of Oz are seen outside the debate between Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington in Brisbane on Friday

The opposition leader is hitting Townsville early, then voting in her southeast seat of Nanango, before heading to marginal Brisbane seats.

Ms Palaszczuk has campaigned on her health response to COVID-19 and her $11 billion in stimulus to boost the economy.

She warned against changing the government and risking the progress the state has made this year.

'It's probably the most important election Queenslanders have ever had to face and it's a very clear choice,' the premier told AAP.

'Now is not the time to risk the LNP, we have been on a clear path this year - we've managed the health crisis, we are on the road to economic recovery.

'Now is not the time to risk all that we've achieved together.

Ms Palaszczuk has campaigned on her health response to COVID-19 and her $11 billion in stimulus to boost the economy. She warned against changing the government and risking the progress the state has made this year

'This election is on a knife-edge, every single vote will count. We'll be working hard for every single vote right up until the polls close.'

Labor are offering to employ thousands of more teachers, doctors, nurses and police and make TAFE free for all students under the age of 25.

The government has promised billions of dollars to upgrade schools, roads and hospitals, as well as loans to businesses doing it tough.

Ms Frecklington has been making the case for change, pointing to Labor's record before the pandemic.

The opposition is promising a $300 car registration refund and a subsidy to reduce electricity costs for business.

The LNP will also upgrade hospitals and roads, fund a tropical fish accelerator and install ship lifts in three ports.

Ms Frecklington (left) said the LNP will deliver nation-building infrastructure to secure the state's economic future for a generation

Down the track they want to upgrade major roads, including widening 1450km of the Bruce Highway from two to four lanes.

Ms Frecklington has also promised to build the New Bradfield irrigation and hydropower project.

She said the LNP will deliver nation-building infrastructure to secure the state's economic future for a generation.

'Labor has dragged Queensland to the bottom of Australia's economic ladder and we'll stay there as long as Labor is in power,' the LNP leader told AAP.

'Labor has no plan for economic recovery, but the LNP does.

'The LNP's plan will stimulate the economy, create 150,000 jobs and lead Queensland out of recession.

'I want to make this state an economic powerhouse again, like we used to be, and we won't get there without the LNP's plan to create jobs.'

KEY POINTS IN QUEENSLAND STATE ELECTION 

THE BALLPARK

* 93 seats in Queensland's single-chamber parliament

Labor 48

LNP 38

Greens 1

One Nation 1

Katter's Australian Party 3

Jason Costigan (ex-LNP, now North Queensland First) 1

Sandy Bolton (independent) 1

SWING NEEDED

* A uniform swing against Labor of 0.7 per cent could put them into minority (if it loses two seats it goes into minority)

* LNP would require a swing of more than three per cent to get a majority

BACKGROUND

* 3.3 million voters

* Record 597 candidates have nominated, from 12 registered political parties and 69 non-endorsed or independent candidates

* It's expected about 70 per cent of votes would have been cast before election day

* It is the first Queensland state election to be held on a fixed date and will elect the first four-year term government

MAIN PLAYERS

* Premier and Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk. She could be the first female political leader to win three elections

* Opposition Leader and Liberal National Party leader Deb Frecklington. The LNP has governed only twice in Queensland since 1989

WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY?

* Roy Morgan poll showed Labor leading the LNP 51-49 per cent (October 21)

* Newspoll showed Labor had overtaken the LNP to lead 52-48 (October 17)

* YouGov poll showed Labor leading the LNP 52-48 (October 8)

KEY ISSUES

* Palaszczuk's COVID-19 health response, which kept the state's number of virus deaths to just six

* Economic management and unemployment

* Law and order in Townsville, Cairns and outer Brisbane

* Integrity issues for both the government and the opposition leader

SEATS TO WATCH

LNP targets:

Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra, Mackay, Keppel, Aspley, Mansfield, Redlands, Gaven, Mirani, Whitsunday, Hinchinbrook, Noosa

Labor targets:

Pumicestone, Bundaberg, Clayfield, Chatsworth, Currumbin, Burleigh, Bonney

Greens target:

South Brisbane

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