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Guyana’s total exports to increase significantly – IDB

– expected to go from 1% increase in 2015-2019 to 79%

Guyana’s export numbers are expected to increase by a whopping 79 per cent between 2020 and 2024, with the total volume of exports heavily influenced by oil production from both current and future floating production, storage and offloading vessels (FPSO).
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) recently published a report in which it detailed Guyana’s macroeconomic statistics. One such statistic was Guyana’s total export volumes from 2020 to 2024, the growth of which averaged just one per cent between 2015 and 2019.
According to the April 2023 report, the IDB further noted that average annual GDP growth is estimated to increase from 26.9 per cent to 37 per cent.
Last year, Guyana had the distinction of being one of the few countries in the Caribbean Region with a positive trade balance, as the IDB had noted the shifting trade trends in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).
A positive trade balance occurs when a country exports more than it imports. In a report last year “Headwinds Facing Post-Pandemic Recovery in the Caribbean”, the IDB had noted that not only is Guyana one of the few countries with a positive trade balance, its 31.3 per cent of trade in agriculture and fuel, as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), far outstrips other countries.
“Guyana switched from a negative balance to a large positive balance between 2019 and 2021 as oil production came onstream. Other countries have fairly substantial negative balances, although the price effects did not produce large increases in these deficits in 2021, based on preliminary national data,” the IDB had said.
It had been explained that Trinidad, the only other country in the Caribbean with a positive trade balance, was able to achieve this by leveraging oil production in much the same way as Guyana. The increase in their positive net trade position in commodities also coincided with oil and gas price increases last year.
According to the IDB, specific commodities such as oil, are expected to have relatively high prices through 2024. Oil, in particular, is expected to remain over US$80 through 2024, before dropping to US$71 by 2027.
Govt revenue
It was further explained that Government revenue and expenditures are expected to average 23 and 15 per cent between 2022 and 2026, respectively. Earlier this year, the largest budget ever in Guyana, $781.9 billion, was passed in the National Assembly.
This year’s budget was financed for the first time by both oil and climate funds.
The Government, meanwhile, made three withdrawals from the fund last year to finance Guyana’s national development plans. These withdrawals amounted to US$607.6 million (GY$126 billion) overall.
The funds from the NRF have their origins in the Stabroek Block – Guyana’s only block currently producing oil. The block is 6.6 million acres (26,800 square kilometres). ExxonMobil, through its local affiliate Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Ltd (EEPGL), is the operator and holds 45 per cent interest in the block. Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd holds 30 per cent interest and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CNOOC Limited, holds the remaining 25 per cent interest.
To date, there have been over 35 discoveries in the Stabroek Block and oil production has been ongoing since 2019. ExxonMobil has said it anticipates at least six projects offshore Guyana will be online by 2027. (G-3)