A new poll shows close presidential and Senate races in Iowa, a state that Trump won by 9 points in 2016.
According to the Monmouth University survey, Joe Biden has a 3-point lead over Trump among likely Iowa voters if voter turnout is high, 50%-47%.
If voter turnout is low, Biden’s advantage among likely Iowa voters increases to 5 points, 51%-46%. Given the poll’s 4.4-point margin of error, that result falls just outside the margin of error.
IOWA POLL: Biden gains in presidential race
48% @realDonaldTrump (50% in Sept.)
47% @JoeBiden (44%)
Likely voters, high turnout:
47% Trump (49% in Sept.)
50% Biden (46%)
Monmouth explains that Biden’s increased advantage in the lower turnout model is due to the number of ballots already cast in Iowa.
According to the poll, 37% of registered Iowa voters say they have already returned their ballots, and 71% of those votes went to Biden. So if overall turnout is low, it will be because Republican-leaning voters don’t turn out on Election Day.
Meanwhile, in the Senate race, Democrat Theresa Greenfield and Republican incumbent Joni Ernst remain locked in a close race.
In Monmouth’s high-turnout model, Greenfield leads Ernst by 2 points among likely voters, 49%-47%, which is within the poll’s margin of error.
If turnout is low, Greenfield’s advantage increases to 6 points, 51%-45%.
The poll underscores that Republicans’ fortunes will largely depend upon turning out their voters on Election Day itself. According to the US Elections Project, 570,909 Iowa voters have already cast their ballots.